Export Trade Analysis
Malawi & All Trading Partners

38-year longitudinal study · Concentration · Clustering · Growth · Volatility · Forecast

Source: fao.org/faostat · Trade Matrix · USD (1000s)

Top Commodity

67.4%

Unmanufactured Tobacco

Top Partner

23.7%

Belgium export share

Dataset Span

38 yrs

1986 – 2024

Peak Export Value

$875M

Tobacco exports, 2010

2029 Forecast

~$690M

Linear regression projection

Top 10 Export Commodities

Share of total export value · All years

Concentration

Tobacco monoculture: Unmanufactured tobacco at 67.4% represents extreme commodity concentration — nearly 7× the share of the second product (tea leaves at 9.8%).

Top 10 Trading Partners

Share of total export value · All years

Concentration

Belgium dominance: At 23.7%, Belgium alone accounts for nearly one quarter of all export value — more than the next two partners (South Africa + USA) combined.

Year-Over-Year Export Growth (%)

Total export value growth rate · 1987–2024 · Computed via lag-column method

Growth Dynamics

1997–1998 anomaly (~12,500% spike): Reflects a data continuity event in FAOSTAT combined with Malawi's post-democratization trade expansion. Post-2000, growth stabilizes in low single digits — consistent with a mature export market.

Tobacco Export Forecast — Next 5 Years

Linear regression model · Historical + projected values through 2029

Prediction

— Historical (1986–2024) -- Forecast (2025–2029)

Recovery trajectory: After a sharp post-2010 decline from $875M to ~$400M, export values have recovered to ~$670M by 2024. The model projects continued growth toward ~$690M by 2029.

Rolling Volatility — Belgium

3-year rolling std. deviation · Export USD

Risk

Year	Export ($M)	Std. Dev.	Volatility

Declining risk: Volatility fell from a peak of $71.3M (2009) to just $7.7M by 2023 — signaling a maturing, more predictable trade relationship.

Export Trade AnalysisMalawi & All Trading Partners

Export Trade Analysis
Malawi & All Trading Partners